CALCULATING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE POWER

A simple formula for approximating electric power production at a hydroelectric plant is: P = ρhrgk, where P is Power in watts, ρ is the density of water (~1000 kg/m3), h is height in meters, r is flow rate in cubic meters per second, g is acceleration due to gravity of 9.8 m/s2, and k is a coefficient of efficiency ranging from 0 to 1. Efficiency is often higher (that is, closer to 1) with larger and more modern turbines.

Annual electric energy production depends on the available water supply. In some installations the water flow rate can vary by a factor of 10:1 over the course of a year. Hunza river offers fifty-two
times more water than during winters, the extremes of run-off in the Shigar river varied in 1986 by a factor of 87. These extremes apply in a similar manner for the Gilgit, Upper Indus and Shyok, all of which derive their major discharge from glacier melt.

The catchment area upriver of the Tarbela Dam is spread over 168,000 square kilometers (65,000 sq mi) of land largely supplemented by snow and glacier melt from the southern slopes of the Himalayas. There are a number of main Indus River tributaries upstream of the Tarbela Dam. These are the Shyok River, joining near Skardu, , Hunza and Gilgit near Danyur, Astore near Bunji and the Siran River near Tarbela. Discharge for Arabian Sea - average 6,600 m3/s (230,000 cu ft/s) approx.

http://www.waterinfo.net.pk/pwss/vol1main.htm

While calculating the potential for Gilgit and Baltistan, the coefficients in the above equation are as follows:

H= 1500m - 610m (4971ft) - (2001ft) =880m (2970 ft)

R=6,600 m3/s (230,000 cu ft/s)

G=9.8 m/s2

K=0.8

Therefore

P=ρhrgk=1000*880*6,600*9.8*0.8=45534720000Watt=45,534.72 Mega Watt

Even if 50% of this potential is harnessed then it not only meets the energy Needs of Pakistan but would be available for export to other countries.

Similarly if the potential in Chitral/Swat/Kaghan/AJK and other river sources is added to this potential on the Indus alone, you can gauge the prospects for the entire country.

Implications: If only 10,000 MW is harnessed, it will generate daily revenue of RS 240 Billion even if it is sold at a paltry rate of Rs1.0 per unit. Remember the current energy in Pakistan is billed at Rs 8.00 per unit. This volume of revenue will not only be sufficient to pay the loans/interest but it will also generate thousands of jobs for the coming generation, besides making the region envy of the world.

Message to the leadership in Pakistan: “Please heed to this rather than your coffers”.

Brig Hisamullah Beg SI(M)

Baltit, Hunza

I am seeking the Government in Gilgit and Baltistan to make a policy decision; meanwhile I have mailed quarries to agencies such as Kuwait Fund, ADB, World Bank and AIIB. This can have a meaning only if the Government of GB modifies present policy of allowing “Private Investment with Community involvement limited to 2-Mega Watt and below”. Furthermore In view of the inefficient and corrupt set up of the government (small contractors tell me that they have to pay Rs 500/00 for the file to move from one desk to the other; military monitoring team says it is filth whatever you check) it will only be possible to harness this potential through a strong “CIVIL SOCIETY”

Hydroelectric Potential at Ataabad Site (before dredging):

(Considering the Average Winter Flow)

H=55.0 m R=95 cum/sec (Minimum Winter Flow) G=9.8 m/sec/sec K=0.8 ρ ~1000 kg/m³

Power=ρhrgk =1000*55*95*9.8*0.8 = 40964000 Watts= 40.96 MW

NOTE: After 24-m dredging the potential according to my calculations has come down to 26-MW. Recent feasibility - April 2021 - by WAPDA team of experts talks of 54-MW.


RELATED LINK: GB GOVERNMENT, WAPDA, ADVOCACY, RESEARCH

Copy of the letter to Government of GB:
"Dear Sir,

I will feel obliged if you would kindly provide me the GB government's written policy /Law on this topic. For a background to this request you are invited to visit:

http://hisamullahbeg.blogspot.com/2010/03/calculating-amount-of-available-power.html
Alternately it can be posted on the official site from where I and other interested people can download."