Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Concrete Proposal towards “Hunza Power Supply Company”

Brainstorm: Concrete Proposal towards Hunza Power Supply Company”

Diamond Jubilee Song and Diamond Jubilee Goals PINS
Moving water is a powerful source of energy that is harnessed to provide clean, fast, and flexible electricity generation.Kinetic energy of water flow in a stream or river is a renewable source of energy abundantly available in our region. Harnessing this source through well established methods is both capital and time intensive. I am suggesting an alternate technology suited from afford ability as well as indigenous manufacture en mass. This involves use of an on site assembly kit for a “floating hydro-electric generator” tethered to the anchors on river bank and suited to minimum flow in winters and also swollen rivers during summers.

1.3 billion people are without electricity, and over 800 million people depend on high cost, polluting fossil fuel generators for their power. However, over 71% of the planet is covered with slowly moving water in rivers, canals, and ocean currents.

A huge, untouched global market exists to provide electricity where it is unavailable, and also to replace the millions of fuel-burning generators currently supplying power at very high cost.


Asian Scene: Asia’s hydro power technical potential amounts to about 5,980 TWh/year, accounting for 37 percent of the global potential, while the total generation in 2011 amounted to about 37 percent of the economically exploitable generation. Three countries accounted for more than 75 percent of total generation: China (61 percent), India (10 percent) and Turkey (5 percent). Generation in the rest of non-OECD Asia3 amounted in the same year to 182 TWh, about 22 percent of the economically exploitable potential. Russia’s hydro power potential amounts to 1,670 TWh/year and accounts for about 10 percent of global hydro power potential.

Facts and figures

  • 13% of the global population still lacks access to modern electricity.
  • 3 billion people rely on wood, coal, charcoal or animal waste for cooking and heating
  • Energy is the dominant contributor to climate change, accounting for around 60 per cent of total global greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Indoor air pollution from using combustible fuels for household energy caused 4.3 million deaths in 2012, with women and girls accounting for 6 out of every 10 of these.
  • The share of renewable energy in final energy consumption has reached 17.5% in 2015.

Objective: To provide electricity to each village independently through self help and gradually increasing the capacity to meet entire demand needed towards economical transformation. Another associated aspect: For pumping water from rivers to irrigate barren lands.


Inspiration

“The energy challenge – here and elsewhere – will require a multi-faceted response, including bold innovations in the way we both produce and consume energy... Hydroelectric power fulfills that goal. It is ‘clean’ energy – advancing sustainable development while minimising its environmental impact.”

His Highness the Aga Khan at the Foundation Stone Laying Ceremony of the Bujagali Hydropower Project (Kampala, Uganda) - 21 August 2007

Lets see and create something that has the same look and feel that can be seen in this video I found the other day.




NEPALI DESIGN, RECENT DESIGNS,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVREafgPcOs

IMPROVED DESIGNArchimedes Hydrodynamic Screw system. This project demonstrated that the low-head technology is simple, robust, and economical.

Levels / Stages Prototype Development and functionality Tests
Need interested youngsters ready to go for a career in this field to participate.
Collaboration by government and established CSOs such as AKRSP, IFAD, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY BOARD etc is highly desirable.

Please feel free to add or update these if you think I missed anything!

Experience Shared: On the other hand, don’t under-estimate what one person looking to change their piece of the world can do. Before I bought the FITZ Waterwheel company, I had been through some hard times. Now 6 years later, I operate 1250 kilowatts of generators commercially, providing clean, environmentally safe power to over 1000 homes. I hope you have as much fun and satisfaction with your waterwheel, whatever the size.
(Rudy Behrens owns the FITZ Waterwheel Company. 118 Sycamore Ct., Collegeville, PA 19426, Phone: (215) 489-6256.)

Cost Analysis of  Hydro-power

Key findings: Average investment costs for large hydro power plants with storage typically range from as low as USD 1 050 /kW to as high as USD 7 650/kW while the range for small hydro power projects is between USD 1 300 /kW and USD 8 000 /kW. Adding additional capacity at existing hydropower schemes or existing dams that don’t have a hydropower plant can be significantly cheaper, and can cost as little as USD 500/kW.

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 MOU

Background:
A “road map towards a Better Tomorrow has been proposed since 2005 by Brig Hisamullah Beg SI (M). The top priorities in this mission are development of energy and human resources through “Self Help” efforts of civil society in the region.
Present MOU has been drawn to ensure that the responsibilities for each member of the team are clearly laid down so that this particular effort in realizing an indigenous design of a “Floating Hydro Electric Generator” is successfully concluded.
The salient points of MOU are:
1.     Finances:
 Brig Hisamullah Beg SI (M) will invest the amount towards development of a prototype illustrated by him through the sketches in Fig-1 and Fig-2
2.   Fabrication:
Will be done in accordance with the manufacturing drawing in Baig Engineering Factories in Gilgit owned and supervised by Hayat Baig resident of Rahim Abad Gilgit.
3.   Accounts:
Auditable accounts will be maintained by Baig Engineering separately for the topic
4.   Expense Head:
a.     Materials
b.    Labour Charges
c.     Services
5.    The progress is visualized according to the monitoring schedule placed on the shared drop box folder titled PROJECT.
Modifications/changes will be incorporated through mutual discussions and also reflected in the shared documents.
6.   The venture is basically motivated from TKN concept and participation by LSO/WOs/VOs towards Self Help. However it could also be considered as a business venture for which a separate “Business Plan” will be drawn through mutual agreement.
7.    Agreed on 10th June 2017:
a.     Brig Hisamullah Beg SI(M) Baltit Hunza- Proponent
b.     Hayat Baig- Owner and Chief Executive of Baig Engineering Gilgit- resident of Rahim Abad.
c.      Faisal Hayat- Mechanical Engineering Graduate and trainee partner of the team.

FIRST PROTOTYPE THROUGH BAIG ENGINEERING GILGIT
Cost: More than 2-Lacs Rupees
FACEBOOK

ALTERNATE PROTOTYPE THROUGH COLLEGE OF EME RAWALPINDI
Cost: Around Fifteen Thousand Rupees.
DESIGN2, SECOND PROTOTYPE

THIRD OPTION also started.


1. Average investment costs for large hydropower plants with storage typically range from as low as USD 1,050/kW to as high as USD     7,650/kW while the range for small hydropower projects is between USD 1,300/kW and USD 8,000/kW. Adding additional capacity at existing hydropower schemes or existing dams that don’t have a hydropower plant can be significantly cheaper, and can cost as little as USD 500/kW.

TABLE 1: TYPICAL INSTALLED COSTS AND LCOE OF HYDROPOWER PROJECTS

Installed costs
costs
( %)
(USD/kW)
( %/year of
Levelised cost of
Operations and
installed costs)
electricity
maintenance
Capacity factor
(2010 USD/kWh)
Large hydro
1050 – 7,650
2 – 2.5
25 to 90
0.02 – 0.19
Small hydro
1,300 – 8,000
1 – 4
20 to 95
0.02 – 0.27
Refurbishment/upgrade
500 – 1,000
1 – 6

0.01 – 0.05
Note: The levelised cost of electricity calculations assume a 10% cost of capital
2. Annual operations and maintenance costs (O&M) are often quoted as a percentage of the investment cost per kW. Typical values range from 1% to 4%. Large hydropower projects will typically average around 2% to 2.5%.
Small hydropower projects don’t have the same economies of scale and can have O&M costs of between 1% and 6%, or in some cases even higher.
3. The cost of electricity generated by hydropower is generally low although the costs are very site-specific.
The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for hydropower refurbishments and upgrades ranges from as low as USD 0.01/kWh for additional capacity at an existing hydropower project to around USD 0.05/kWh for a more
expensive upgrade project assuming a 10% cost of capital. The LCOE for large hydropower projects typically ranges from USD 0.02 to USD 0.19/kWh assuming a 10.% cost of capital, making the best hydropower power projects the most cost competitive generating option available today. The LCOE range for small hydropower projects for a number of real world projects in developing countries evaluated by IRENA was between USD 0.02 and USD 0.10/kWh, making small hydro a very cost competitive option to supply electricity to the grid, or to supply off-grid rural electrification schemes. Very small hydropower projects can have higher costs than this and can have an LCOE of USD 0.27/kWh or more for pico-hydro systems.

4. Significant hydropower potential remains unexploited. The technical potential is some 4.8 times greater than today’s electricity generation. The total worldwide technical potential for hydropower is estimated at 15,955 TWh/year.
UPDATE: : Brig Tariq Javed, commandant College of EME detailed a team to include Dr Aqib PerwaizR&D, Dr Raja Amer Azim, and Dr Azhar-ulhaq to work on the improved design being developed by Brig Beg. First coordination meeting was held on 19th Feb 2018. Aqib.Perwaiz raja_amer@cemr.nust.edu.pk tjtariq@gmail.com

Friday, April 14, 2017

What is Dropbox?

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Democracy or Hypocrisy:

HISAMULLAH BEG·WEDNESDAY, 12 APRIL 2017

DEFINITIONS OF DEMOCRACY:

1. a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.

"a system of parliamentary democracy"
synonyms: representative government, elective government, constitutional government, popular government; More
a state governed under a system of democracy.
plural noun: democracies
"a multiparty democracy"
control of an organization or group by the majority of its members.
"the intended extension of industrial democracy"
government by the people; especially : rule of the majority


2. a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections
a political unit that has a democratic government
capitalized : the principles and policies of the Democratic party in the U.S.from emancipation Republicanism to New Deal Democracy — C. M. Roberts
the common people especially when constituting the source of political authority
the absence of hereditary or arbitrary class distinctions or privileges


3. government by the people; a form of government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised directly by them or by their elected agents under a free electoral system.
a state having such a form of government:
The United States and Canada are democracies.
a state of society characterized by formal equality of rights andprivileges.
political or social equality; democratic spirit.
the common people of a community as distinguished from any privileged class; the common people with respect to their political power.

Any of the definitions existing implies two important aspects viz,

a. Consultation and
b. More than 50% vote.

Let us analyse the election results for Hunza:

Year    Eligible    Voters    Votes Cast    Votes for Winner    Percentage    Remarks

2009             34066               18521                5324                 15.62%       84% opposed

2015             36427               20250                 8062                22.1%         77.9% opposed

2016             36427               11833                 4697                12.9%          87.1% opposed


CONCLUSION: On average More than 80% eligible voter have opposed the winning candidate.

With compliment to General Azam: WE  NEED  MORE  PROVINCES -- TO REDUCE CORRUPTION & IMPROVE  GOVERNANCE !!!
Pakistan is the "Highly Centralized Fraud Democracy" of the World where One PM and 4 CMs Control the whole wealth of the country. Rest have no powers but subservient. See attached analysis
Pakistan's fraud democracy and electoral system has to be changed before any new election. This 1850s colonial power launched system will NEVER change things for Pakistan. 80% villagers are at the mercy of local police and jagirdars.
The only way to move forward is: change of system by force. 
Any assembly under current system will not vote for any positive change. 

​A
s I personally told Dr. Qadri face to face & sent PTI e-mails
​, ​
Dharna should have demanded the following :
1. Creation of 6000 City Governments with full powers like Turkey's 3000, China's 47,000 and USA's 19,700. Proportionaltely Pakistan needs 6000. 
2. Presidential System with direct vote. While all ministers be picked on merits.
3. Pakistan has 30 divisions and 5 admin units - be converted into admin provinces - elected governor & no CMs (No world democracy but India with few has CMs and ministers - A big expense)
In current system IK will have difficult chance because of rural vote, who rule cities as CMs and Ministers and destroy the. Karachi is best example of not have core of dmocracy: City Government not Baldiati Minister. Pak democracy had manufacturing defect and well not progress even in the nest 70 years under current system. 

Creation of 6000 Powerful City Governments, Presidential System and 35 Administrative Units are the only Solutions for Governance and Economic Development of Pakistan. An International Comparative Analysis with Centralized Pakistani Democracy Abstract: Pakistan’s resources and potential are underutilized and mismanaged. GDP Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) should have been $2 Trillion+. Pakistan is the only country with four provinces when compared with rest of the world. It has not changed 1850s British system which does not even exist even in UK. Analysis given below reflects how disconnected Pakistanis are from reality. Solutions: Three levels of elected offices for better governance to serve people and to solve problems are best for Pakistan: Mayor – Governor – President. There are 30 Divisions of Pakistan and 5 administrative areas, be converted into 35Admin Units, while City Governments be established immediately. There are 19,429 municipal governments in the United States. Many small towns use the council-manager system (most counties have this system) China has 47,000 large & small City Governments, and Turkey has 2950 Mayors. Almost all large cities in the USA, EU, China, and many parts of the world have strong mayor systems. China, USA, and many countries have provinces, counties, cities or municipalities and towns or villages. Abolish provincial ministries & save billions.
Country    Population Provinces GDP PPP 2015 Police, Security, Water, Electricity, & Jobs
Pakistan    200 Million 4 $731 billion Centralized under CM & IG Private Sector
Turkey       76 Million 81 $1.589 trillion City Government & Mayor
Iran            66 Million 30 $1.371 trillion City Government & Mayor
Japan       127 Million 47 $4.830 trillion City Government & Mayor
Indonesia 240 Million 32 $2.842 trillion City Government & Mayor
Vietnam     90 Million 58 $553 billion City Government & Mayor
Nigeria     183 Million 37 $1.092 trillion City Government & Mayor
Egypt         89 Million 27 $1.010 trillion City Government &Mayor
Philippines 101 Million 80+39 $741 billion City Government & Mayor
France        64 Million 26 $2.647 trillion City Government & Mayor
Italy           58 Million 20 $2.171 trillion City Government & Mayor
Germany    81 Million 16 $3.834 trillion City Government & Mayor
Mexico     111 Million 31 $2.227 trillion City Government & Mayor
Brazil       206 Million 26 $3.192 trillion City Government & Mayor
Russia      140 Million 83 $3.718 trillion City Government & Mayor
USA         313 Million 50 $17.950 trillion City Government & Mayor
Thailand     68 Million 76 $1.108 trillion City Government & Mayor

Pakistan Defense forces in each division can be used for infrastructure development like China and the USA did. Elected Mayors should be responsible for development, education, security and growth. Legislative body should have no role in administration.

By: Dr. Zafar A. Bokhari, Chairperson & Associate Professor, Management, Marketing, & Management Information Systems, College of Business, Chicago State University, Chicago, Illinois, USA Contact: zbokhari@csu.edu Phone: 1-630-202-5462


Friday, April 7, 2017

Motivations for Knowledge Society Initiative

1324 AH        TALIQA
1940 – Radio address of H.R.H Sir Sultan Muhammad Shah Aga Khan-III directed to our region.
1946 – Establishment of D.J. Schools and D.J. Hostel in Gilgit in 1949 and SKH in 1967.
1957 – to date: AKDN facilitation through various agencies/institutions.
2001 – Key Note speech: Speech by His Highness the Aga Khan; Washington D.C., USA, 22 April 2001 - Centenary Celebration Meeting, Association of American Universities - Making a Difference: Reflections on Shared Problems, Shared Opportunities and Shared Responsibilities in International Higher Education (Washington D.C., USA)
2001 – Establishment through unified efforts, by Association of American Universities [especially MIT, STANFORD and HARDVARD] in promoting MOOCs/OPEN EDUCATION.
2010 – Establishment of 14 excellent centers through government schools in all districts of GB by PDCN.

2013 – Individual efforts to establish “idea demonstration projects” in Hunza as “life long learning/Telemedicine” centers – including activation of the center located in Government Model High School Karimabad established by PDCN and appeal for mass participation as an essential step towards a better future.


NOTE:  
1.      Integration of outernet makes every home a world class university. For a demonstration you can visit the model project at my residence in Hunza.
2.    TARGETS FOR AKRSP/LSOs:         
a.     TARGET ONE: In twenty five years’ time span, improve the economic conditions so that populations in Northern areas and Chitral can meet the ever increasing costs of health and education and also become SELF SUSTAINING.
b.    TARGET TWO. Groom indigenous leadership capable of establishing democracy, (pre-requisite for meritocracy and pluralism) and also capable of planning for a better quality of life for their future without external inputs.
c.     TARGET THREE: Facilitate establishment of Knowledge Society in the Program Area (included in 2003).
3.     “I think I am fortunate to be able to talk to you about serious issues and for you to understand to position the Jamat correctly for the next decades where I would like the Jamat to be, Insha-Allah, in the world in 10 years, 15 years, 20 years.”  13 December 2008
4.    The conviction that home-grown intellectual leadership of exceptional caliber is the best driver of society’s future development, and that many developing country education systems are too engulfed by poverty and numbers to develop their talented young people - hence the KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY INITIATIVE.
5.     March towards global leadership will involve following steps:
  • Get rid of BEGGING BOWL/QARATANG MENTALITY
  • Develop HUMAN RESOURCES AND ENERGY THROUGH CIVIL SOCIETY:
a.      ENERGY: 100-MW in next 20-years through proposed “HUNZA POWER SUPPLY COMPANY” – A joint ownership of all HUNZUKUTZ through their LSOs – idea demonstrator project working in KHURUKUSHAL KHAN since September 2013. FLOATING HYDROPOWER GENERATOR
b.     HR:    Through LIFELONG LEARNING CENTERS/OPEN UNIVERSITIES, first one – SASLLC/OPEN UNIVERSITY– already in operation in Government Model High School Karimabad.
1)          STEPS:
a)      Determine your aptitude through an ON-LINE course – Example on this link: AptitudeTest Online Course.
b)      Choose a subject/specialty out of the 25,516 courses through SASLLC, example link: CONSORTIUM.
c)      Download the COACHING material and go for your specialty.
d)      For details of the ROAD-MAP go through the post on this link:
http://hisamullahbeg.blogspot.com/2010/02/introduction-to-hdf.html
6.   Extracts from the Minutes of the Meeting of His Highness Prince Aga Khan Shia Imami Ismaili council for Pakistan held on March 29th and 30th, 2003 at Conference Hall, PindiJamatkhana premises, Rawalpindi-Islamabad.
(presided by Brig Hisamullah Beg)
Responding to an observation IW told the house that Ismailis working with AKRSP are very old and not seems to fit into new system and that is why others are more in numbers and in percentage.
Brig Beg observed that a transparent competitive procedure is likely to result in selection of 90 percent Ismailis in different positions and advocated a blatant meritocratic competition and opined that such a course would not face serious challenges from pressure groups as faced previously and also in the present process. This assessment was not shared by many and accordingly it was proposed that the council should diagnose the reasons for lack of competence among Ismailis in coming up to standards and chalk out a road map for the future.
To this a discussion went on amongst the members as to why AKDN institutions are not getting good Ismailis. Sharing her viewpoint, Laila Dossa, a member NC said that we don't want to pay well and do not know how to retain them, the fellow joins the institution as if he is serving the cause and then feels squeezed and leaves quietly.
Wrapping up the subject AP said it's good to consider merit as criteria but we also need to consider the Ismaili constituency. We need to keep balance keep both merit and Ismaili. If we are not able to find Ismailis competent enough we should train them to be qualified on merit. He also proposed to form a committee to address the subject and requested LD to come up with recommendations.
Higher Education and Scholarships: We have realized in the March meeting that Ismaili candidates do not dominate on merit for job opportunities in AKDN. Competitive human resources can be developed only through access to higher education and proper stress for the same in award of scholarship and loans. My proposals for "Facilitation in accessing higher education" is through re-course to "distance learning" proposal as an immediate short-term measure. We recall the keynote address delivered by our Mawla to the MIT two years back and recent policy announcement by MIT. MIT wants to initiate a global revolution in education and towards the same making the course material available free on the internet. Mawla's directions to AKU-IED and the university of Central Asia are well known to the leadership. The GOP IT policy gives the shape of things emerging in Pakistan.
We need to adopt this cost-effective and feasible solution in all our institutional policies at almost every local council/ VO/ the Jamat Khana and AKDN offices at all levels. Requirement for AKU is to facilitate asynchronous transmissions directly from the satellites to the centers within the limits of already purchased bandwidth.
As regards to the scholarships I will illustrate my point by a chart which indicates a distribution of scholarships during Five years which has been extracted from the databases recently released by the AKES. This shows out of 72 scholarship (between 1995 - 2000), 47 having been allotted in Karachi, 4 in Sind, 3 in Punjab, 5 in NWFP, 8 in NA and 2 in Chitral. We need to reassess the HR needs of these regions and set specific targets in numbers as well as specialties. I would like the leaders to come up with recommendations on this or alternate proposal, which we may give to the AKDN.
NOTE: As a result the change in appointment policy took place. On this occasion AKRSP was expected to include a third target “Facilitate establishment of Knowledge Societies” in addition to the two laid down at the time of launching of the institution.
TOWARDS KNOWLEDGE SOCIETIES


Monday, April 3, 2017

Khilafat - Meaning of: Question from Javed Ahmad Ghamidi


A Khalifa is someone designated by someone in authority to represent him amongst the followers of that authority. Thus:
Khalifatullah: Designated by God on earth.
Khalifa-e-Rasul: Designated by Prophet
Khalifa:      Designated by a spiritual authority such as a SUFI Pir.
It is apparent that right to KHILAFAT in Islam comes from God and nobody else. It has been hijacked in our history through recourse to a selfish interpretation of "Qur’an: had declared: 38.42 ( اَمْرُهُم شُوْرٰی بَينَهُمْ-- the affairs of the Muslims are run on the basis of their mutual consultation”, and hence the confusion within Muslim.
There is this verse dealing with this issue:
“Allah had promised to those among you who believe and do good works that He will surely make them Successors in the earth, as He made Successors from among those who were before them; and that He will surely establish for them their religion which He has chosen for them; and that He will surely give them in exchange security and peace after their fear: They will worship Me, and they will not associate anything with Me. Then whoso is ungrateful after that, they will be the rebellious. (Surah Al-Nur, Verse 55).”
It is He who appoints a Khalifa as well. He chooses the person who is most eligible to become a Khalifa.
Khilafat establishes the authority of Allah on earth, and the Khalifa strives to uphold that authority within the community of followers. For the believers, Khilafat is an embodiment of Allah’s Unity, as they choose to take divine authority through the person of the Khalifa. The believers partake of the blessings of Khilafat by holding firm to their faith and practices, united under him.

NOTE: Awaiting a response - published views on this link : Javed Amad Ghamedi

RELATED: WILAYATSHARIA, GHADIR-E-KHUM

Saturday, April 1, 2017

Yearly Page-views of my blog by Countries

Graph of most popular countries among blog viewers





EntryPageviews
United States
40850
Pakistan
37185
France
11219
Germany
10714
Russia
10594
Ukraine
7386
United Kingdom
4834
China
2887
Sweden
2300
India
1695